In response to a comment left under an article, Tom Jefferson explains that Baroness Heather Hallett’s pantomime, which is officially known as the UK Covid Inquiry, ignored science and evidence.
“Until this nettle is grasped, the Inquiry will not contribute anything substantial; only the establishment will receive get-out-of-jail-free cards,” he writes.
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The Covid Inquiry: Which is it to be, Lady Hallett?
By Tom Jefferson, as published by Trust the Evidence (“TTE”)
Carl Hoefer chided us for soft-balling our words while comparing the reports of Modules 2 and 3 of the UK Covid Inquiry.
We wrote: “The lesson for the Inquiry, however, is to confront its own findings more directly: to reconcile the tensions between its modules and acknowledge that policies intended to save lives can simultaneously generate harm. Without this honesty, the risk is not just misunderstanding the past, but repeating it.”
Read more:
- When Protecting the NHS Meant Failing Patients, Trust the Evidence, 20 March 2026
- The Covid Inquiry’s Contradiction, Trust the Evidence, 22 March 2026
Ok Carl, try this:
In November 2025, TTE summarised the content of the recently published Module 2. We caught sentences like “too little too late” and wrote: “The report goes on to cite modelling, reporting that a lockdown one week earlier might have saved 23,000 lives, but there is no interrogation of the inherent uncertainty in such modelling. It accepts the ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ without probing why alternative models were not stress-tested. There was blind faith in models, but no curiosity about whether their inputs were garbage, which they were.”
Read more: Covid Inquiry Module 2 report published, Trust the Evidence, 20 November 2025 (behind a paywall)
Now the Inquiry reports a mere whiff of the social and economic catastrophe that lockdowns represented. Carl Hoefer is right. For example, cancer patients were not given a choice to attend follow-up. They were actively discouraged from attending or told to take a long walk off a short plank. They were blocked.
I use cancer as an example, but you could pick any other condition, serious or not. I am a physician, trained to identify serious conditions, but if a patient thinks it’s serious, I do not quibble.
A neurologist friend of mine in the North of Italy was distraught; by the summer of 2020, he had lost most of the progressive neurodegenerative disease patients that he had carefully managed, trying to stop the inevitable decline.
I will not detail the waste, theft, cowardice and larceny that went on as we have repeatedly covered it on TTE.
So, Lady Hallett’s pantomime has finally hit the key to it all. Which is to be: saving 23,000 lives based on panic, models and overnight experts – or wrecking society?
Sanity should have prevailed: sit on your hands until you understand the pros and cons of each alternative, sit on your hands until you have spoken to people who are familiar with evidence and the vagaries of respiratory viruses.
It did not because evidence and science, with their inherent uncertainty, were ignored. Until this nettle is grasped, the Inquiry will not contribute anything substantial; only the establishment will receive get-out-of-jail-free cards.
About the Author
Tom Jefferson is a clinical epidemiologist and a Senior Associate Tutor at the University of Oxford. Together with Professor Carl Heneghan, he writes articles on a Substack page titled ‘Trust the Evidence’.
Featured image taken from ‘Pandemic brought NHS ‘close to collapse’, says UK Covid inquiry’, Financial Times, 19 March 2026 (left). Matt Hancock giving testimony at the Covid Inquiry, taken from ‘Tory party pressure led Boris Johnson to delay Covid curbs, says Matt Hancock’, Financial Times, 1 December 2023 (right)

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